Thursday, June 25, 2015

UFC Fight Night 70 preview: Lyoto Machida vs. Yoel Romero

UFC Fight Night 70 preview: Lyoto Machida vs. Yoel Romero 

With UFC Fight Night 70 taking place this Saturday, June 27, from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Fla., let’s take a look at the main event between two top 185-pounders with very different styles, Lyoto Machida (22-6) vs. Yoel Romero (9-1).

We’re looking at a middleweight contender fight here, and if Larkin vs. Ponzinibbio doesn’t steal the show with Fight of the Night, Machida vs. Romero likely will.  Machida comes into the fight off a second round submission loss to Luke Rockhold in April of this year.  Machida was thoroughly beaten throughout the duration of the fight and there’s no doubt he’s looking to erase the fans’ memories of that performance.

Romero, on the other hand, is perfect at 5-0 in the UFC since he came into the promotion in 2013.  However, many fans have not forgotten his questionable victory over Tim Kennedy, a bout in which Romero was given extra time to answer the bell after round 2, which many thought gave him an unfair advantage.  Controversy aside, Romero has not fought since the win over Kennedy in September of last year.

The betting lines give Machida a slight edge as he is the favorite at -170 while Romero is the underdog at +150.  Will Romero be able to put his Olympic wrestling pedigree to use against the elusive Machida?

In addition to his wrestling pedigree, which is far superior to the wrestling skills of any of Machida’s previous opponents, Romero has added some explosive striking to his repertoire.  He’s a compact powerhouse in the middleweight division and if he gets most opponents down, they’re not going to be able to get out from under him.

Enter the Dragon, Machida.  This will be a style matchup for the books as Machida is well-known for being elusive enough to frustrate nearly all of his opponents.  He strikes with power moving forward and backward, and works angles better than nearly everyone in the UFC.

The first round will be very telling.  Look for Romero to go for the knockout blow early in the fight, and then try and score a takedown if he can’t connect on the feet.  If, and this is the big question, if he can get Machida down, can he keep him down?  Phil Davis used his wrestling to stifle Machida en route to a decision win, and it’s certainly possible that Romero could do the same.  If Romero isn’t taking Machida down at will by the second round, then Machida will have figured Romero out and will be able to keep him away, landing strikes here and there to score a clear, albeit fairly boring, decision win.

But if Romero can get Machida down and keep him down, he’ll work his wrestling and ground and pound to score a clear decision win of his own.  Given the stylistic differences, this is a hard fight to call.  Machida is always dangerous, but Rockhold made him look weak and ineffective.  Romero, on the other hand, has a questionable will, after his between-rounds display against Kennedy, and if Romero has similar feelings between rounds against Machida, Machida will be able to exploit that when the next round starts.  Not to mention, there’s no doubt that the assigned referee will be watching Romero closely after the criticism of how Big John McCarthy handled the Romero/Kennedy fight.

As much as it would be nice to see Machida get back in the win column, I like Romero to win the fight, shutting down Machida about halfway through the first round and keeping him down for the duration of the fight on his way to a unanimous decision victory.  That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Machida is able to land a hard straight right that will put Romero on his back if Romero tries to move in too quickly.